Friday Investment Talk: China, Gold, Inflation
US markets besieged by unexpected inflation data. Chinese stocks get a boost from stimulus. Gold looks bullish.
Recession Statistics
Either the US is already half way into a recession or maybe half way through one. Markets perform well in most case before and after recessions. Weakness is greatest during recessions.
Friday Investment Talk – Bullish Indicators, Deglobalization
Bullish Indicators for US markets. News highlights deglobalization, but trends do not show the threat.
May is Worse
May shows poor performance in mid term election years, especially in the mid part of the month.
April Powers
April is historically a great month for stocks. However, in mid-term election years like 2022, its just mediocre.
Forecasting a Recession
What is the probability now of a recession? With employment optimism pitted against inflation pessimism, we look at the odds.
Friday Investment Talk: Commodities
A hot war has created hot commodity prices. Wheat was a big gainer this week, but also oil and non-ferrous metals took off. Brazil has shown strength this year as its relative strength outperforms many sectors. Healthcare companies such as our favorite BMY have a made a huge comeback this year. Selling continues everywhere else, Read more ➝
Cold War 2.0
A surprising Russian invasion in Ukraine has thrown the world back to a Cold War status. Mid-term election years are when these types of political and economic upheavals usually reveal their ugly heads. Going forward the market will work to find a bottom during a likely volatile year for investors.
Friday Investment Talk: Gas Supplies, Russia-Ukraine, Bullish Markets
Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) cannot replace Europe’s reliance on Russia for heating fuel. Russia is a main supplier of both piped gas and LNG. Markets are relying a quick resolution to the Ukraine war. A ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’ event has taken place so far this year. Is this move sustainable? Market Indicators Read more ➝
March Relief
In mid-term election years, US markets perform generally well in March. Leadership in small caps stocks is discernible.