Friday Investment Talk: Inflation, Bonds, Quality Stocks
Inflation has pushed interest rates higher and wrecked havoc in bond markets. Investors turn away from SAAS towards ‘reopening stocks’ in the Industrial sector. This rotation has crimped the markets so far this year and could spell trouble for most of 2022.
Reduction in Life Expectations means State Pension “Bonus” – UK Pensions Update 2022
A little known fact is one of the multitude of variables used by the UK pensions authority to calculate state pension liabilities involve both expected mortality AND the ratio that has on time spent working verses retirement.
Biotech – Analysis and Outlook
AVC have focused on the two leading Biotech ETFs over the last few years, but it has been a tough year. We follow XBI and IBB. XBI is SPDR S&P Biotech, and IBB is iShares Biotechnology.
January Market Expectations
Mid-Term Januarys usually provide less than optimal market conditions for investors. They also are less prescriptive of the rest of the year’s returns.
Friday Investment Talk: Christmas Gifts, ETF Inflows, Housing, and US Population
Ray Dalio suggests gifting gold coins for Christmas, while investors set records for ETF inflows in 2021. ESG ETFs grew while IPO ETFs underperform. Markets sold off in December providing a bullish setup in two pet supply companies as put/call ratios roll over to buy signals for the S&P 500 index. Beware of mid-term US Read more ➝
Friday Investment Talk: Oil and Energy, Real Estate, Sector Rotation
Energy markets look to be in a long term bull market with continued strength in oil prices fueling additional exploration. Real Estate prices for residential housing are rising faster than rents. Likely rents will play catch up in 2022. Sector rotation towards quality and low volatility is taking place since the Federal Reserve has began Read more ➝
2021 US Markets Review
US markets were top performers in 2021. Fed tapering became the year’s theme as inflation began showing up in the Spring. Bonds sold off, and yields rose. Chinese companies suffered as a crackdown on foreign listed stocks erupted in Q3. The US maintains its top ranking of all equity markets going into 2022.
Investment Strategy Update
November started out very strong, but around the middle of the month small cap stocks began to struggle. Large cap stocks (especially the favored technology and consumer discretionary stocks) went on to make all time highs later in the month. However, during the generally bullish period of the year – around Thanksgiving (Thursday, November 25th) -the large cap leaders also started to sell off.
Friday Investment Talk: Black Friday and Turkey
Markets sold off on the day after Thanksgiving in the US. What is typically a bullish period for the markets proved an undoing. The markets had their worst day of the year in 2021 and the worst Black Friday since 1931. Turkey is suffering an economic meltdown that is spreading to civic unrest. The lira Read more ➝
December Seasonality
Post-election year Decembers are weaker than in other years. There are plenty of bullish days towards the end of the month that investors can take advantage of.