October Bear Killer?
October is known as the ‘bear killer’ month. In US mid-term election years it can provide especially strong returns. With the economy faltering and inflation still too hot, investors are skeptical. We wait for confirmed bullish signals as markets set up for a bounce.
Mid-Term Matters
The US presidential election cycle last four years and shows definitive patterns historical that point to weakness in the first half of the second year. This leads to a run up in Q4 following thru to Q1 of year 3. This is known as the ‘sweet spot’ for investors.
September: Out of the Woods?
The summer rally has impressed as the major averages pushed back to their respective 200-day moving averages, a key technical level where they stalled last week. Now they are testing new short-term support around the June highs and the 50-day moving averages. Investors are clearly not out of the woods yet.
Friday Investment Talk: China, Gold, Inflation
US markets besieged by unexpected inflation data. Chinese stocks get a boost from stimulus. Gold looks bullish.
Recession Statistics
Either the US is already half way into a recession or maybe half way through one. Markets perform well in most case before and after recessions. Weakness is greatest during recessions.
Friday Investment Talk – Bullish Indicators, Deglobalization
Bullish Indicators for US markets. News highlights deglobalization, but trends do not show the threat.
May is Worse
May shows poor performance in mid term election years, especially in the mid part of the month.
April Powers
April is historically a great month for stocks. However, in mid-term election years like 2022, its just mediocre.
Forecasting a Recession
What is the probability now of a recession? With employment optimism pitted against inflation pessimism, we look at the odds.
Friday Investment Talk: Commodities
A hot war has created hot commodity prices. Wheat was a big gainer this week, but also oil and non-ferrous metals took off. Brazil has shown strength this year as its relative strength outperforms many sectors. Healthcare companies such as our favorite BMY have a made a huge comeback this year. Selling continues everywhere else, Read more ➝