Friday Investment Talk: Chinese Consumers, E-Commerce, Space Exploration, Seasonality, Small Caps and Bitcoin Bubbles, and OZON
Fidelity is bullish on China. Goldman Sachs likes OZON. ARK’s Cathie Wood likes space exploration. But, seasonality does not bode well for markets in late January/February.
January returns weaken after options expiration Friday. Earnings season picks up next week, as a new US administration takes office. Expectations for a further rebound in stocks may already be baked in to consensus expectations.
December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index.
November is a very strong month for US equities, but in an election year it really shines for the SPX and DJIA. Its much weaker for tech and small cap stocks.
Halloween typically offers investors a treat. A six day trading period starting next week is usually very bullish.
After five straight monthly gains, the US stock market finally came under pressure in September. The NASDAQ hit the ‘correction level’ of a 10% slide. Markets have rebounded, but October is usually weak. Patience is needed for entry into the seasonally positive part of the year.
October can invoke fear into investors as it is usually a weak month. However, October often marks the lows for the year. Stay diligent!
US stock markets continue to see an extreme concentration of interest in a small number of stocks. Does this signal an imminent sell off or will market participation broaden?
Portfolio managers returning to work after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year. A bullish election-year does little to improve on September’s poor overall performance.
S&P 500 has declined 9 of the last twelve years on the first trading day. Options Expiration week (Triple Witching for September) is usually bullish, but beware after that!
The month of August is usually one of the worst months of the year for US stocks. In years of a US presidential election (like 2020), August holds a special spot in the calendar for certain stocks.