Are Markets “Getting Ahead of Themselves”?
For about 6 weeks the market has moved higher. This momentum takes many indicators to extremely overbought levels. This typically leads to weak price action going forward.
Friday Investment Talk: China, Gold, Inflation
US markets besieged by unexpected inflation data. Chinese stocks get a boost from stimulus. Gold looks bullish.
Recession Statistics
Either the US is already half way into a recession or maybe half way through one. Markets perform well in most case before and after recessions. Weakness is greatest during recessions.
May is Worse
May shows poor performance in mid term election years, especially in the mid part of the month.
April Powers
April is historically a great month for stocks. However, in mid-term election years like 2022, its just mediocre.
Forecasting a Recession
What is the probability now of a recession? With employment optimism pitted against inflation pessimism, we look at the odds.
Cold War 2.0
A surprising Russian invasion in Ukraine has thrown the world back to a Cold War status. Mid-term election years are when these types of political and economic upheavals usually reveal their ugly heads. Going forward the market will work to find a bottom during a likely volatile year for investors.
March Relief
In mid-term election years, US markets perform generally well in March. Leadership in small caps stocks is discernible.
Hot CPI
Today’s hot CPI numbers burned the market. The Fed’s Bullard gets hawkish and may spell problems for the market going forward in February.
February Seasonality
February has been getting lousier for investors. The first half is usually better than the second. Utilities and High Tech start bullish seasonal trends soon.