With greater than 5% gain in the main US indexes in both October and November this year, December is expected to start slow and then gain steam as the Santa Clause Rally comes to town.
With the Dow up over 14% so far in October 2022, US markets are on pace to record their best October performance ever going back to 1901. While many retail investors remain bearish (see the AAII Sentiment Poll results below), we feel a new bull market is emerging – at least for the near term. Read more ➝
October is known as the ‘bear killer’ month. In US mid-term election years it can provide especially strong returns. With the economy faltering and inflation still too hot, investors are skeptical. We wait for confirmed bullish signals as markets set up for a bounce.
The summer rally has impressed as the major averages pushed back to their respective 200-day moving averages, a key technical level where they stalled last week. Now they are testing new short-term support around the June highs and the 50-day moving averages. Investors are clearly not out of the woods yet.
For about 6 weeks the market has moved higher. This momentum takes many indicators to extremely overbought levels. This typically leads to weak price action going forward.
US markets besieged by unexpected inflation data. Chinese stocks get a boost from stimulus. Gold looks bullish.
Either the US is already half way into a recession or maybe half way through one. Markets perform well in most case before and after recessions. Weakness is greatest during recessions.
May shows poor performance in mid term election years, especially in the mid part of the month.
April is historically a great month for stocks. However, in mid-term election years like 2022, its just mediocre.
What is the probability now of a recession? With employment optimism pitted against inflation pessimism, we look at the odds.