July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.
The month of June ranks near the bottom of all months for most of the US indexes. Expect volatility during the third week. After that it tends to only get worse.
The best six months of the year for certain US stock indexes has ended. A defensive stance is warranted as the summer months arrive.
After stocks suffer large declines, certain companies perform better during a rebound. Besides focusing on timing the bottom, investors need to know what is likely to perform best. We show some historical statistics to get investors ready.
January is typically a good month for US stocks. However, during election years that is not always the case. Nasdaq stocks usually perform the best in January.
Novemeber is tracking the seasonal patterns very closely. We still expect a mild pullback early next week, but from then on we are likely to see post-Thanksgiving gains. Early December can be disappointing for bullish traders, but as Christmas approaches the bulls come back to the parade.
Markets are up strongly since issuing the recent Buy Signal. The next two weeks often have retracements of monst of the gains in the first days of November. This mid-November weakness is a good time to add to positions.
Suddenly, the market turns bullish. The seasonal bull run has begun and investors are jumping in.
The Seasonal Buy Signal is on Hold. The bull market is still in waiting.
Below we show a correlation matrix of some of the more popular US ETFs. As a reminder, the closer the correlation is to +1 the stronger the positive relationship. And the closer the number to —1 the stronger the negative relationship. How can we use this knowledge? Two ways: Diversification. One of the tenants of Read more ➝