July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.
AVC partners discuss corporate bonds from some surprising names now considered “Fallen Angels”. Gold, inflation and the undervalued gold miners are discussed in relation to the current overbought market. Thursday’s huge sell off is a set up for a last run of strength before real seasonal weakness sets in.
We have a just launched the first session of our new weekly “Friday Investment Talk” series. This week Alan, Mike, and I discuss the continuation of the bull market’s posture. Mike speaks of how client’s ‘fear of missing out’ leads to overly concentrated portfolios. Alan highlights how the recent Chinese sell off could be a buying opportunity, as other Asian markets look strong.
Usually at this time of the year, early-April, stock markets would have had a nice seasonal rally. Well, there is nothing usual about the market or the economy this time.
As of today, the new bear market closing lows were on March 23. From their highs DJIA was down 37.1% and S&P 500 was down 33.9%.
Since then the market has rebounded to trim those losses.
Now we look to position for the worst months of the year ahead.
Large daily moves in both directions of 2-5% and huge intraday swings have taken a toll on markets and psyches. But the February 28 low has held through this week’s wild swings.
According to sector seasonality, there are two sectors that begin their seasonally favorable periods in March: High-Tech and Utilities.
Markets are up strongly since issuing the recent Buy Signal. The next two weeks often have retracements of monst of the gains in the first days of November. This mid-November weakness is a good time to add to positions.
There are 13 sector seasonalities that enter favorable periods in October. some last only a few months, others half the year. Entry levels and expected returns are exposed.
Below we show a correlation matrix of some of the more popular US ETFs. As a reminder, the closer the correlation is to +1 the stronger the positive relationship. And the closer the number to —1 the stronger the negative relationship. How can we use this knowledge? Two ways: Diversification. One of the tenants of Read more ➝
September’s markets can be much weaker than usual. Investors often looking to precious metals and bonds as areas of safety. Semiconductors are usually the weakest sector.
One of the bright spots in the commodities asset class, as well as the broader market this year, has been precious metals. In Q2 2019 among all alternative assets, precious metals ETFs were well represented in the top ten.
The recent rally in precious metals presents a few questions. Why this type of performance in precious metals? How have technicals improved as a result?