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April is historically a great month for stocks. However, in mid-term election years like 2022, its just mediocre.
What is the probability now of a recession? With employment optimism pitted against inflation pessimism, we look at the odds.
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A hot war has created hot commodity prices. Wheat was a big gainer this week, but also oil and non-ferrous metals took off. Brazil has shown strength this year as its relative strength outperforms many sectors. Healthcare companies such as our favorite BMY have a made a huge comeback this year. Selling continues everywhere else, …

Friday Investment Talk: Commodities Read More »

A surprising Russian invasion in Ukraine has thrown the world back to a Cold War status. Mid-term election years are when these types of political and economic upheavals usually reveal their ugly heads. Going forward the market will work to find a bottom during a likely volatile year for investors.
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Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) cannot replace Europe’s reliance on Russia for heating fuel. Russia is a main supplier of both piped gas and LNG. Markets are relying a quick resolution to the Ukraine war. A ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’ event has taken place so far this year. Is this move sustainable? Market Indicators …

Friday Investment Talk: Gas Supplies, Russia-Ukraine, Bullish Markets Read More »

In mid-term election years, US markets perform generally well in March. Leadership in small caps stocks is discernible.
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Reports are circulating in the British press that the Home Secretary (UK’s interior Minister) will announce an end to the so-called Golden Visa for UK immigrants. These Visas allowed High Net Worth individuals to buy a fast track to UK residency and ultimately citizenship.

Markets were again weak with the $SPX falling 1.6% during the usually bullish options expirations week. European markets and gold showed strength, while energy stocks stay on their 2022 roll. Inflation fears has caused JP Morgan to look for 7 interest rate increase in 2022, yet none greater than 25 bps. Bank of America sees …

Friday Investment Talk: Europe, Inflation, Interest Rates Read More »

The inflationary environment and post-COVID reopening is leading to pockets of bullishness in the US equity markets. ‘Its a stock pickers market’ is heard among investors. Energy, Industrial and Consumer Staple companies are outperforming while the Nasdaq and S&P500 continue to struggle.

Today's hot CPI numbers burned the market. The Fed's Bullard gets hawkish and may spell problems for the market going forward in February.
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