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In stark contrast to last year, 2023 is off to a bullish start. S&P 500 finished the month strong with a 6.2% gain. The January Barometer is positive! This is the best S&P January since 2019 which was also the last year the S&P 500 completed our bullish January Indicator Trifecta. The January Indicator Trifecta …

January’s Forecast for 2023 Read More »

Next week inflation numbers and the final Fed meeting for 2022 will provide investors a narrative for the rest of the years trading. As the market is up strongly in the last 5 weeks, energy is starting to signal economic weakness going forward.
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Either the US is already half way into a recession or maybe half way through one. Markets perform well in most case before and after recessions. Weakness is greatest during recessions.
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Bullish Indicators for US markets. News highlights deglobalization, but trends do not show the threat.

Markets staged a massive rebound this week, led by some of the worst performing stocks including Chinese and tech names. Investors took their lead from the US Federal Reserves hawkish comments supporting sustained interest rate hikes to control inflation while not reducing GDP growth expectations. Buy signals sprouted across many indicators. Put/Call Ratios are rolling …

Friday Investment Talk: Markets Rebound Read More »

Bond Yields are nearing 2% in US and Italy. This has killed the long term Austrian bond we love to look at. Investing in energy, precious metals and defense contractors has paid off since the start of the year. Our strategies show strong outperformance compared to the $SPX. Recession is predicted by the S&P 500 …

Friday Investment Talk: Bond Yields, AVC Investment Strategy, Recession Read More »

What is the probability now of a recession? With employment optimism pitted against inflation pessimism, we look at the odds.
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A hot war has created hot commodity prices. Wheat was a big gainer this week, but also oil and non-ferrous metals took off. Brazil has shown strength this year as its relative strength outperforms many sectors. Healthcare companies such as our favorite BMY have a made a huge comeback this year. Selling continues everywhere else, …

Friday Investment Talk: Commodities Read More »

A surprising Russian invasion in Ukraine has thrown the world back to a Cold War status. Mid-term election years are when these types of political and economic upheavals usually reveal their ugly heads. Going forward the market will work to find a bottom during a likely volatile year for investors.
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Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) cannot replace Europe’s reliance on Russia for heating fuel. Russia is a main supplier of both piped gas and LNG. Markets are relying a quick resolution to the Ukraine war. A ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’ event has taken place so far this year. Is this move sustainable? Market Indicators …

Friday Investment Talk: Gas Supplies, Russia-Ukraine, Bullish Markets Read More »

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