March has a tendency to be rather volatile – weaker in post-election years than normal. Saint Patrick’s Day and Triple Witching Options Expiration Week offer certain interesting trade opportunities.
January returns weaken after options expiration Friday. Earnings season picks up next week, as a new US administration takes office. Expectations for a further rebound in stocks may already be baked in to consensus expectations.
The MACD indicators applied to DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all positive as of today’s close. These leads to several buy signals across various equity indexes, according to the seasonal investment strategy.
November is a very strong month for US equities, but in an election year it really shines for the SPX and DJIA. Its much weaker for tech and small cap stocks.
Halloween typically offers investors a treat. A six day trading period starting next week is usually very bullish.
Seasonality is problematic this year, likely due to the elections and politics around another COVID stimulus package. Still, time and history work for the strategy.
After five straight monthly gains, the US stock market finally came under pressure in September. The NASDAQ hit the ‘correction level’ of a 10% slide. Markets have rebounded, but October is usually weak. Patience is needed for entry into the seasonally positive part of the year.
October can invoke fear into investors as it is usually a weak month. However, October often marks the lows for the year. Stay diligent!
Portfolio managers returning to work after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year. A bullish election-year does little to improve on September’s poor overall performance.
S&P 500 has declined 9 of the last twelve years on the first trading day. Options Expiration week (Triple Witching for September) is usually bullish, but beware after that!
As we discussed at the end of July, the August rally in US small cap stocks has taken hold. Can this continue as major indexes close in on all time record levels?