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September gets no respite from positive pre-election year forces. Positive year returns going into what becomes a bad August leads to a better chance of September being a decent month, however.
With greater than 5% gain in the main US indexes in both October and November this year, December is expected to start slow and then gain steam as the Santa Clause Rally comes to town.
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October is known as the 'bear killer' month. In US mid-term election years it can provide especially strong returns. With the economy faltering and inflation still too hot, investors are skeptical. We wait for confirmed bullish signals as markets set up for a bounce.
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May shows poor performance in mid term election years, especially in the mid part of the month.
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April is historically a great month for stocks. However, in mid-term election years like 2022, its just mediocre.
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In mid-term election years, US markets perform generally well in March. Leadership in small caps stocks is discernible.
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While the fundamental economic outlook remains positive for US markets, inflation and high stock multiples are wearing on investor sentiment. February could offer a reprieve for the market in the volatile mid-term election year.
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US markets were top performers in 2021. Fed tapering became the year's theme as inflation began showing up in the Spring. Bonds sold off, and yields rose. Chinese companies suffered as a crackdown on foreign listed stocks erupted in Q3. The US maintains its top ranking of all equity markets going into 2022.
November started out very strong, but around the middle of the month small cap stocks began to struggle. Large cap stocks (especially the favored technology and consumer discretionary stocks) went on to make all time highs later in the month. However, during the generally bullish period of the year - around Thanksgiving (Thursday, November 25th) -the large cap leaders also started to sell off.
Post-election year Decembers are weaker than in other years. There are plenty of bullish days towards the end of the month that investors can take advantage of.
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