US markets besieged by unexpected inflation data. Chinese stocks get a boost from stimulus. Gold looks bullish.
Either the US is already half way into a recession or maybe half way through one. Markets perform well in most case before and after recessions. Weakness is greatest during recessions.
Bullish Indicators for US markets. News highlights deglobalization, but trends do not show the threat.
May shows poor performance in mid term election years, especially in the mid part of the month.
April is historically a great month for stocks. However, in mid-term election years like 2022, its just mediocre.
Bonds are now worst performers than stocks since the beginning of the year. Such pessimism in bond prices has not been seen for decades. Meanwhile, interest rate hikes are usually bullish for equities during the first few months of increases. Value stocks broke out to new highs this week as market internals turn more bullish. Read more ➝
Markets staged a massive rebound this week, led by some of the worst performing stocks including Chinese and tech names. Investors took their lead from the US Federal Reserves hawkish comments supporting sustained interest rate hikes to control inflation while not reducing GDP growth expectations. Buy signals sprouted across many indicators. Put/Call Ratios are rolling Read more ➝
Bond Yields are nearing 2% in US and Italy. This has killed the long term Austrian bond we love to look at. Investing in energy, precious metals and defense contractors has paid off since the start of the year. Our strategies show strong outperformance compared to the $SPX. Recession is predicted by the S&P 500 Read more ➝
What is the probability now of a recession? With employment optimism pitted against inflation pessimism, we look at the odds.
A hot war has created hot commodity prices. Wheat was a big gainer this week, but also oil and non-ferrous metals took off. Brazil has shown strength this year as its relative strength outperforms many sectors. Healthcare companies such as our favorite BMY have a made a huge comeback this year. Selling continues everywhere else, Read more ➝
