January returns weaken after options expiration Friday. Earnings season picks up next week, as a new US administration takes office. Expectations for a further rebound in stocks may already be baked in to consensus expectations.
December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index.
The MACD indicators applied to DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all positive as of today’s close. These leads to several buy signals across various equity indexes, according to the seasonal investment strategy.
November is a very strong month for US equities, but in an election year it really shines for the SPX and DJIA. Its much weaker for tech and small cap stocks.
October can invoke fear into investors as it is usually a weak month. However, October often marks the lows for the year. Stay diligent!
US stock markets continue to see an extreme concentration of interest in a small number of stocks. Does this signal an imminent sell off or will market participation broaden?
Concentration in the largest companies continues to increase. The top 5 US companies are now larger than all of Europe’s markets combined. Covid vaccinations are comining this fall. Which companies could gain and will people accept the new vaccine?
Portfolio managers returning to work after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year. A bullish election-year does little to improve on September’s poor overall performance.
S&P 500 has declined 9 of the last twelve years on the first trading day. Options Expiration week (Triple Witching for September) is usually bullish, but beware after that!
The month of August is usually one of the worst months of the year for US stocks. In years of a US presidential election (like 2020), August holds a special spot in the calendar for certain stocks.
The increase is COVID cases in the US along with the upcoming presidential election make for an interesting summer of investors. July through October performance is a high predictor of the election. Is a July rally likely?