October: Worst Month in Election Years
October can invoke fear into investors as it is usually a weak month. However, October often marks the lows for the year. Stay diligent!
A Narrow Market in August
US stock markets continue to see an extreme concentration of interest in a small number of stocks. Does this signal an imminent sell off or will market participation broaden?
Friday Investment Talk: FAAMG, COVID Vaccines, Market Update
Concentration in the largest companies continues to increase. The top 5 US companies are now larger than all of Europe’s markets combined. Covid vaccinations are comining this fall. Which companies could gain and will people accept the new vaccine?
Scary September Seasonality
Portfolio managers returning to work after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year. A bullish election-year does little to improve on September’s poor overall performance.
S&P 500 has declined 9 of the last twelve years on the first trading day. Options Expiration week (Triple Witching for September) is usually bullish, but beware after that!
August Seasonality: Best Month for Tech and Small Caps?
The month of August is usually one of the worst months of the year for US stocks. In years of a US presidential election (like 2020), August holds a special spot in the calendar for certain stocks.
July Outlook Update: More COVID Threatens Rally
The increase is COVID cases in the US along with the upcoming presidential election make for an interesting summer of investors. July through October performance is a high predictor of the election. Is a July rally likely?
July Seasonality
July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter. This strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but we must beware of the hype, as summer has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons. Are US election years any different?
NASDAQ Positive Seasonal Streak Ending
NASDAQ Seasonality has changed to a more negative stance after today’s negative performance. Caution is warranted in tech stocks. Bonds can be added as summer months can provide weakness to stocks.
China and the QQQs
US and China tensions are beginning to boil over after China passed a plan to increase its security presence in Hong Kong.
The US State Department no longer considers Hong Kong to have significant autonomy and now threatens to revoke the special current special status it enjoys.
Which US listed companies derive large amounts of revenue from Hong Kong and China? We look at how changes affect these companies and the indexes they comprise.
May Seasonality: Weak in Election Years
The US stock market in May used to perform buch better than it has in recent years. Still, there is generally a bullish bias in certain stock sectors.
May trading during US election years is generally weak. Caution is warranted, especially in the second half of the month.