December Outlook: Powerful Yearend Rally
December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index.
Seasonal Buy Signal
The MACD indicators applied to DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all positive as of today’s close. These leads to several buy signals across various equity indexes, according to the seasonal investment strategy.
November Seasonality: Best Month in Election Years?
November is a very strong month for US equities, but in an election year it really shines for the SPX and DJIA. Its much weaker for tech and small cap stocks.
October: Worst Month in Election Years
October can invoke fear into investors as it is usually a weak month. However, October often marks the lows for the year. Stay diligent!
A Narrow Market in August
US stock markets continue to see an extreme concentration of interest in a small number of stocks. Does this signal an imminent sell off or will market participation broaden?
Friday Investment Talk: FAAMG, COVID Vaccines, Market Update
Concentration in the largest companies continues to increase. The top 5 US companies are now larger than all of Europe’s markets combined. Covid vaccinations are comining this fall. Which companies could gain and will people accept the new vaccine?
Scary September Seasonality
Portfolio managers returning to work after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year. A bullish election-year does little to improve on September’s poor overall performance.
S&P 500 has declined 9 of the last twelve years on the first trading day. Options Expiration week (Triple Witching for September) is usually bullish, but beware after that!
August Seasonality: Best Month for Tech and Small Caps?
The month of August is usually one of the worst months of the year for US stocks. In years of a US presidential election (like 2020), August holds a special spot in the calendar for certain stocks.
July Outlook Update: More COVID Threatens Rally
The increase is COVID cases in the US along with the upcoming presidential election make for an interesting summer of investors. July through October performance is a high predictor of the election. Is a July rally likely?
July Seasonality
July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter. This strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but we must beware of the hype, as summer has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons. Are US election years any different?