July Outlook Update: More COVID Threatens Rally
The increase is COVID cases in the US along with the upcoming presidential election make for an interesting summer of investors. July through October performance is a high predictor of the election. Is a July rally likely?
July Seasonality
July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter. This strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but we must beware of the hype, as summer has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons. Are US election years any different?
NASDAQ Positive Seasonal Streak Ending
NASDAQ Seasonality has changed to a more negative stance after today’s negative performance. Caution is warranted in tech stocks. Bonds can be added as summer months can provide weakness to stocks.
China and the QQQs
US and China tensions are beginning to boil over after China passed a plan to increase its security presence in Hong Kong.
The US State Department no longer considers Hong Kong to have significant autonomy and now threatens to revoke the special current special status it enjoys.
Which US listed companies derive large amounts of revenue from Hong Kong and China? We look at how changes affect these companies and the indexes they comprise.
May Seasonality: Weak in Election Years
The US stock market in May used to perform buch better than it has in recent years. Still, there is generally a bullish bias in certain stock sectors.
May trading during US election years is generally weak. Caution is warranted, especially in the second half of the month.
April Outlook: Bear Market Bounce
Everyone seems to be hoping for the stock market to find support here, already so much damage has been done.
A great deal of uncertainty remains for the world economy and health crisis. April looks like a good time for a bear market bounce.
Further out, investors should experience a rough ride in the market this year with quite a bit of choppy trading.
March Seasonality: Stronger in Election in Years
Unlike weather and the biblical tales, stock markets in March usually start with stability and turn wild with volatility towards the end.
Stock Market Update: Big Names Surge, Small Ones Fizzle
Large Cap stocks make up most of the gains this year, far outpacing smaller stocks. A reversal of this trend could come soon, in March even.
Seasonal Trade Strategy: November
November is generally a very good month for US stocks. However, in years preceeding US Presidential elections, November has not always shown a strong performance. This year, options expiration week comes early. Our calendar shows the dates investors need to watch.
Seasonal Trade Strategy: September – Part 2
September’s markets can be much weaker than usual. Investors often looking to precious metals and bonds as areas of safety. Semiconductors are usually the weakest sector.