US markets besieged by unexpected inflation data. Chinese stocks get a boost from stimulus. Gold looks bullish.
May shows poor performance in mid term election years, especially in the mid part of the month.
April is historically a great month for stocks. However, in mid-term election years like 2022, its just mediocre.
Markets staged a massive rebound this week, led by some of the worst performing stocks including Chinese and tech names. Investors took their lead from the US Federal Reserves hawkish comments supporting sustained interest rate hikes to control inflation while not reducing GDP growth expectations. Buy signals sprouted across many indicators. Put/Call Ratios are rolling Read more ➝
Bond Yields are nearing 2% in US and Italy. This has killed the long term Austrian bond we love to look at. Investing in energy, precious metals and defense contractors has paid off since the start of the year. Our strategies show strong outperformance compared to the $SPX. Recession is predicted by the S&P 500 Read more ➝
Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) cannot replace Europe’s reliance on Russia for heating fuel. Russia is a main supplier of both piped gas and LNG. Markets are relying a quick resolution to the Ukraine war. A ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’ event has taken place so far this year. Is this move sustainable? Market Indicators Read more ➝
In mid-term election years, US markets perform generally well in March. Leadership in small caps stocks is discernible.
Markets were again weak with the $SPX falling 1.6% during the usually bullish options expirations week. European markets and gold showed strength, while energy stocks stay on their 2022 roll. Inflation fears has caused JP Morgan to look for 7 interest rate increase in 2022, yet none greater than 25 bps. Bank of America sees Read more ➝
Today’s hot CPI numbers burned the market. The Fed’s Bullard gets hawkish and may spell problems for the market going forward in February.
European interest rates rising, while the US is geared up for 5 hikes of 25 basis points in 2022. The market has shown extreme volatility lately as the interest rate hikes don’t jive with corporate earnings and future guidance.