As Europe reopens, UK’s BOE announces the economic recovery will be ‘V-shaped’. Tourist travel seems to be picking up and markets (especially tech stocks) reacted well – as is usual in this seasonal bullish period. Q2 earnings reports are on the horizon, with stocks priced for perfection.
Fiscal stimilus is ending in the US as government transfer reciepts and other forms of unemployment support expire. As elections come to the forefront and COVID cases increase further aid is likely. The effects on inflation will be muted until employment levels come back and wages increase.
July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.
The increase is COVID cases in the US along with the upcoming presidential election make for an interesting summer of investors. July through October performance is a high predictor of the election. Is a July rally likely?
This Friday we follow up on our ESG webinar from Wednesday. ESG ETFs have witnessed explosive growth in terms of AUM and number of listings. ESG outperfomance vis-a-vis SPX and even the NDX is evident lately. Certain institutional investors have pushed this stretched trend recently. Many market indicators (both fundamental and technical) are very overbought. Read more ➝
July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter. This strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but we must beware of the hype, as summer has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons. Are US election years any different?
Stocks are still bullish from a technical point of view – the Put/Call ratio is overbought, but not yet negative.
All time highs for percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages (95%).
Seasonality is generally weak in summer months, but summers are better in election years than other months in election years, and better than in summer months in non-election years. Research from Bank of America,
Cylicals could take the lead in the summer, as social media and tech companies under polical pressure.
Since broad domestic equity indices posted a bottom on March 23rd, they have not looked back. In fact, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have each rebounded with price returns in excess of 30%.
As a result of this upward movement a number of indicators have turned positive. What does this mean longer term for equity markets?
US and China tensions are beginning to boil over after China passed a plan to increase its security presence in Hong Kong.
The US State Department no longer considers Hong Kong to have significant autonomy and now threatens to revoke the special current special status it enjoys.
Which US listed companies derive large amounts of revenue from Hong Kong and China? We look at how changes affect these companies and the indexes they comprise.
We have a just launched the first session of our new weekly “Friday Investment Talk” series. This week Alan, Mike, and I discuss the continuation of the bull market’s posture. Mike speaks of how client’s ‘fear of missing out’ leads to overly concentrated portfolios. Alan highlights how the recent Chinese sell off could be a buying opportunity, as other Asian markets look strong.
The month of June ranks near the bottom of all months for most of the US indexes. Expect volatility during the third week. After that it tends to only get worse.