October Bear Killer?

October is known as the ‘bear killer’ month. In US mid-term election years it can provide especially strong returns. With the economy faltering and inflation still too hot, investors are skeptical. We wait for confirmed bullish signals as markets set up for a bounce.

To access this post, you must purchase Subscription Plan – AVC Pro.

Mid-Term Matters

The US presidential election cycle last four years and shows definitive patterns historical that point to weakness in the first half of the second year. This leads to a run up in Q4 following thru to Q1 of year 3. This is known as the ‘sweet spot’ for investors.

Investment Strategy Update

November started out very strong, but around the middle of the month small cap stocks began to struggle. Large cap stocks (especially the favored technology and consumer discretionary stocks) went on to make all time highs later in the month. However, during the generally bullish period of the year – around Thanksgiving (Thursday, November 25th) -the large cap leaders also started to sell off.