Investment Strategy Update
November started out very strong, but around the middle of the month small cap stocks began to struggle. Large cap stocks (especially the favored technology and consumer discretionary stocks) went on to make all time highs later in the month. However, during the generally bullish period of the year – around Thanksgiving (Thursday, November 25th) -the large cap leaders also started to sell off.
November Leads Off
November leads into the best months of the year. Trading around Thanksgiving is a bit tricky.
Friday Investment Talk: Emerging Markets, Barron’s Big Money Poll, Seasonality
Closer look at Emerging Markets after last years stellar returns. Barrons Big Money looks bullish from the outside only. SaaS is overvalued still.. Seasonality shifts towards small caps. Financial Vulnerability is a hot topic after COVID.
Seasonality: More Stimulus and New Highs
Seasonality has slightly moved forward this month. Will we see more weakness ahead, as this month’s gains are above average already with last week’s move from the US stimulus announcement?
Halloween Trading Strategy
Halloween typically offers investors a treat. A six day trading period starting next week is usually very bullish.
October: Worst Month in Election Years
October can invoke fear into investors as it is usually a weak month. However, October often marks the lows for the year. Stay diligent!
Scary September Seasonality
Portfolio managers returning to work after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year. A bullish election-year does little to improve on September’s poor overall performance.
S&P 500 has declined 9 of the last twelve years on the first trading day. Options Expiration week (Triple Witching for September) is usually bullish, but beware after that!
August Seasonality: Best Month for Tech and Small Caps?
The month of August is usually one of the worst months of the year for US stocks. In years of a US presidential election (like 2020), August holds a special spot in the calendar for certain stocks.
July Seasonality: Mid Month Update
NASDAQ’s mid-year rally (described here in late June) came to an end on July 14. From mid-July, the second quarter is usually plagued with poor performance. Enthusiam and large amounts of cash on the sidelines could keep stock prices aflot. Hower, defensive positioning seems a more reasonable bet.
January Negative Returns: What does it mean for the rest of the year?
January finished January down 0.2%. But the does not necessarily meaan the rest of the year will be. We look at the historical record to see how other years performed when January did not do well. It turns out 2 of 3 indicators often are enough to propel the markets higher.