Investment Strategy Update

November started out very strong, but around the middle of the month small cap stocks began to struggle. Large cap stocks (especially the favored technology and consumer discretionary stocks) went on to make all time highs later in the month. However, during the generally bullish period of the year – around Thanksgiving (Thursday, November 25th) -the large cap leaders also started to sell off.

Scary September Seasonality

Portfolio managers returning to work after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year. A bullish election-year does little to improve on September’s poor overall performance.

S&P 500 has declined 9 of the last twelve years on the first trading day. Options Expiration week (Triple Witching for September) is usually bullish, but beware after that!

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July Seasonality: Mid Month Update

NASDAQ’s mid-year rally (described here in late June) came to an end on July 14. From mid-July, the second quarter is usually plagued with poor performance. Enthusiam and large amounts of cash on the sidelines could keep stock prices aflot. Hower, defensive positioning seems a more reasonable bet.

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two of three for January Indicators

January Negative Returns: What does it mean for the rest of the year?

January finished January down 0.2%. But the does not necessarily meaan the rest of the year will be. We look at the historical record to see how other years performed when January did not do well. It turns out 2 of 3 indicators often are enough to propel the markets higher.

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