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Tag: Seasonality

The Santa Claus Rally is a phenomenon in the stock markets that consists of a rise in stock prices from the last week of December to the first two days of January. The S&P 500 has averaged gains of 1.10% in retrospect during this rally. Will there be a Santa Claus Rally this year?
When looking at the seasonal patterns for election years, like 2024, mostly bullish patterns appear for the US markets. The most bullish scenario is when there is a sitting president running for reelection. In those years, NASDAQ has averaged a full-year gain of 19.14%. This is much stronger than the 12.73% average gain in all …

Election Years: Importance of Incumbant Read More »

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A list of stocks likely to bounce after tax loss harvesting.
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December is better than November in Pre-election years for the most part. Weakness in the beginning will lead to a good run in the end of the month.
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November marks the beginning of the bullish season for stocks, especially small caps. As the market moves to bullishness we have witnessed a huge rally.
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September is historically one of the weakest months for equities, and so far, the month is living up to its reputation. Through 9/15, the S&P 500 (SPX) is down about 1.3%, but for the month that holds the “weakest month of the year” title that seems a bit tame. Studies show that it has historically …

September’s Dark Side Read More »

September gets no respite from positive pre-election year forces. Positive year returns going into what becomes a bad August leads to a better chance of September being a decent month, however.
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May is not an inspiring month for investors. Only a couple of sectors usually post positive gains. Election years are no different.
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In stark contrast to last year, 2023 is off to a bullish start. S&P 500 finished the month strong with a 6.2% gain. The January Barometer is positive! This is the best S&P January since 2019 which was also the last year the S&P 500 completed our bullish January Indicator Trifecta. The January Indicator Trifecta …

January’s Forecast for 2023 Read More »

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With greater than 5% gain in the main US indexes in both October and November this year, December is expected to start slow and then gain steam as the Santa Clause Rally comes to town.
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