Macroeconomic charts say industrials will do well. China and US push limits and fears of trade wars and currency problems. Oil remains strong, as seasonality supports more large cap strength.
Value stocks have been on a tear, while growth stocks and tech leaders have taken a back seat since late January. This has pressured the overall market indexes, e.g. the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. March volatility arrived as promised and next week could exacerbate into more weakness as put-call ratios continue to rise and Read more ➝
April is the best month for Dow stocks. Its still good in post-election years.
Seasonality has slightly moved forward this month. Will we see more weakness ahead, as this month’s gains are above average already with last week’s move from the US stimulus announcement?
March has a tendency to be rather volatile – weaker in post-election years than normal. Saint Patrick’s Day and Triple Witching Options Expiration Week offer certain interesting trade opportunities.
The month of February is generally pretty weak for traders, but the situation in post-election years is stunningly poor. After such a strong run since the November elections this February deserves special attention.
Friday Investment Talk: Chinese Consumers, E-Commerce, Space Exploration, Seasonality, Small Caps and Bitcoin Bubbles, and OZON
Fidelity is bullish on China. Goldman Sachs likes OZON. ARK’s Cathie Wood likes space exploration. But, seasonality does not bode well for markets in late January/February.
January returns weaken after options expiration Friday. Earnings season picks up next week, as a new US administration takes office. Expectations for a further rebound in stocks may already be baked in to consensus expectations.
The month of January has quite a bullish reputation among investors, but post election years tend to be weaker then others.
A rally in underperforming small cap stocks is likely during January. We highlight a few names of interest here.