November Seasonality: Best Month in Election Years?
November is a very strong month for US equities, but in an election year it really shines for the SPX and DJIA. Its much weaker for tech and small cap stocks.
Friday Investment Talk: US Elections, Seasonality, Europe, Japan and Emerging Markets
We take a first glance at Bank of America research on which sectors will benefit under the four possible election results in the US. Meanwhile, US sector rotation is visible. Investors are moving from technology to industrials. Emerging markets are holding up, also. Gold and Silver are flat. Barron’s highlights the possibility of Japan and Read more ➝
Trade for the Jewish Holidays
Next week starts the Jewish holidays and the relevant market adage, “Sell on Rosh Hashanah and buy on Yom Kippur” comes into play. Historically, the SPX was down roughly 58% of the time during this period.
October: Worst Month in Election Years
October can invoke fear into investors as it is usually a weak month. However, October often marks the lows for the year. Stay diligent!
August Seasonality: Best Month for Tech and Small Caps?
The month of August is usually one of the worst months of the year for US stocks. In years of a US presidential election (like 2020), August holds a special spot in the calendar for certain stocks.
Friday Investment Talk: Valuations, Growth to Value Transition, Gold and Healthcare Stocks
Are markets overbought? The narrow bull market in FAANG and some other technology stocks has led to concern among analysts that stocks are out of sync with the economy. We explore how interest rate assumptions affect analyst pricing in discounted cash flow models and lead to inflated asset prices. A discussion of the opposite case Read more ➝
Friday Investment Talk: Fallen Angels, Gold vs Miners, and Weak Seasonality
AVC partners discuss corporate bonds from some surprising names now considered “Fallen Angels”. Gold, inflation and the undervalued gold miners are discussed in relation to the current overbought market. Thursday’s huge sell off is a set up for a last run of strength before real seasonal weakness sets in.
Friday Investment Talk: Overbought Markets Headed Into Summer
Stocks are still bullish from a technical point of view – the Put/Call ratio is overbought, but not yet negative.
All time highs for percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages (95%).
Seasonality is generally weak in summer months, but summers are better in election years than other months in election years, and better than in summer months in non-election years. Research from Bank of America,
Cylicals could take the lead in the summer, as social media and tech companies under polical pressure.