December: A Slow Starter
With greater than 5% gain in the main US indexes in both October and November this year, December is expected to start slow and then gain steam as the Santa Clause Rally comes to town.
Not Bad November
With the Dow up over 14% so far in October 2022, US markets are on pace to record their best October performance ever going back to 1901. While many retail investors remain bearish (see the AAII Sentiment Poll results below), we feel a new bull market is emerging – at least for the near term. Read more ➝
Friday Investment Talk: China, Gold, Inflation
US markets besieged by unexpected inflation data. Chinese stocks get a boost from stimulus. Gold looks bullish.
Friday Investment Talk – Bullish Indicators, Deglobalization
Bullish Indicators for US markets. News highlights deglobalization, but trends do not show the threat.
Friday Investment Talk: Bonds Weakness and Equity Strength
Bonds are now worst performers than stocks since the beginning of the year. Such pessimism in bond prices has not been seen for decades. Meanwhile, interest rate hikes are usually bullish for equities during the first few months of increases. Value stocks broke out to new highs this week as market internals turn more bullish. Read more ➝
Friday Investment Talk: Markets Rebound
Markets staged a massive rebound this week, led by some of the worst performing stocks including Chinese and tech names. Investors took their lead from the US Federal Reserves hawkish comments supporting sustained interest rate hikes to control inflation while not reducing GDP growth expectations. Buy signals sprouted across many indicators. Put/Call Ratios are rolling Read more ➝
Friday Investment Talk: Bond Yields, AVC Investment Strategy, Recession
Bond Yields are nearing 2% in US and Italy. This has killed the long term Austrian bond we love to look at. Investing in energy, precious metals and defense contractors has paid off since the start of the year. Our strategies show strong outperformance compared to the $SPX. Recession is predicted by the S&P 500 Read more ➝
Friday Investment Talk: Commodities
A hot war has created hot commodity prices. Wheat was a big gainer this week, but also oil and non-ferrous metals took off. Brazil has shown strength this year as its relative strength outperforms many sectors. Healthcare companies such as our favorite BMY have a made a huge comeback this year. Selling continues everywhere else, Read more ➝
Friday Investment Talk: Gas Supplies, Russia-Ukraine, Bullish Markets
Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) cannot replace Europe’s reliance on Russia for heating fuel. Russia is a main supplier of both piped gas and LNG. Markets are relying a quick resolution to the Ukraine war. A ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’ event has taken place so far this year. Is this move sustainable? Market Indicators Read more ➝
Friday Investment Talk: Europe, Inflation, Interest Rates
Markets were again weak with the $SPX falling 1.6% during the usually bullish options expirations week. European markets and gold showed strength, while energy stocks stay on their 2022 roll. Inflation fears has caused JP Morgan to look for 7 interest rate increase in 2022, yet none greater than 25 bps. Bank of America sees Read more ➝