Ideas
Our observations, insights and news from the investment world
- 6.02.2020
- Categories: Analytics, Investing basics, Personal finance
- Tags: Momentum, Relative Strength, Sectors, SPX
Relative strength-based investing performs best when there is a high level of dispersion between market leaders and laggards. Since the beginning of this year, this has been the case. Semicondutors, software, waste management and computer technology sectors are leading, while oil related stocks are lagging.
Using relative strength-based investing strategies can lead to significant long term market outperfomance compared to 'buy and hold' strategies.
- 5.02.2020
- Categories: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, Personal finance
- Tags: DJIA, January, S&P 500
January finished January down 0.2%. But the does not necessarily meaan the rest of the year will be. We look at the historical record to see how other years performed when January did not do well. It turns out 2 of 3 indicators often are enough to propel the markets higher.
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- 4.02.2020
UK Car Park company Park First has run into trouble. We have strong doubts that investors will recieve any money back.
This is another example of an investment (we avoided and warned against) that has lured many Russian clients into losing all their money. If you have been affected, please seek the correct channels for communicating your dispute.
Fundamentally speaking, US growth is slowing. Technically the markets are consolidating. After a steady rise from early-October through mid-January, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ appear to be taking a breather. Monetary policy remains loose, interest rates are low and are likely to remain low. QE4 or repo market support is now expected to continue through at least April 2020. February is seasonally neutral for markets, and investor sentiment is fading. Any pause in market trends is likely short-lived.
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- 22.01.2020
- Categories: AVC Pro Subscription, Investment ideas, Personal finance
- Tags: Copper, COPX, CPER, DIA, FCG, IBB, IYW, IYZ, Natural Gas, QQQ, SOXX, SPX, UNG, VNQ, XLk, XNG
Natural Gas, Energy and Copper still have to show signs of life to fulfill their usual bullish winter runs. Meanwhile, Strong US equity markets have lead to excellent returns in the model portfolios that adhere to seasonal trade stratagies. Expect some modest seasonal weakness soon, though.
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- 10.01.2020
- Categories: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, Investment ideas, Personal finance
- Tags: SPX, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLk
With the new year and new decade already here, the markets closed on one of the strongest years for the US equity market in the past decade. The S&P 500 (SPX) was up nearly 29% in 2019 - the second best year in the 2010s, only 2013’s return of just over 29% beat it. All broad sectors produce gains last year, with nine out of the 11 broad sector SPDR ETFs posting gains greater than 20%. The top three sectors, using SPDR ETFs as proxies, were technology (XLK), communication services (XLC, basically a technology ETF), and financials (XLF), returning 47.90%, 29.92%, and 29.22%, respectively. Energy (XLE), on the other hand, was
- 1.01.2020
- Categories: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, Personal finance
- Tags: 2020, SPX, Tech
With worldwide central bank rate cuts at record highs and inflated SPX valuations, Wall Street earnings estimates for Q1 2020 look excessive. This is a typical sign of last cycle bull market. Mega-caps are able to outperform and hold earnings margins, but can they continue?
We review what JP Morgan and BAML analysts have to say about the current state of the US economic landscape. Why would they make top recommendations in Energy, Small Caps, Industrials and Transportation for 2020?
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- 30.12.2019
- Categories: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, Personal finance
- Tags: IWM, January, Seasonal Strategy, SPX
January is typically a good month for US stocks. However, during election years that is not always the case. Nasdaq stocks usually perform the best in January.
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- 23.12.2019
- Categories: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription
- Tags: Seasonal Strategy, SPX
Political stability creates a solid back drop for a decent 2020. The US Fed is accomodative while weak earnings and high valuations remain.
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- 25.11.2019
- Categories: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, Investment ideas, Personal finance
- Tags: DJIA, IWM, NASDAQ, NDX, Russell 2000, RUT, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally, SPX, SPY
Novemeber is tracking the seasonal patterns very closely. We still expect a mild pullback early next week, but from then on we are likely to see post-Thanksgiving gains. Early December can be disappointing for bullish traders, but as Christmas approaches the bulls come back to the parade.
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