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Ideas

Our observations, insights and news from the investment world

September is historically one of the weakest months for equities, and so far, the month is living up to its reputation. Through 9/15, the S&P 500 (SPX) is down about 1.3%, but for the month that holds the “weakest month of the year” title that seems a bit tame. Studies show that it has historically …

September’s Dark Side Read More »

September gets no respite from positive pre-election year forces. Positive year returns going into what becomes a bad August leads to a better chance of September being a decent month, however.
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With realized market volatility remaining muted in recent weeks and expected volatility (i.e., the VIX) sitting at multi-year lows, today we examined the relationship in the perspective of forward returns.
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Simple sell signals are appearing, including the lack of momentum in leading stocks recently. July in pre-election years is weaker than average Julys. A NASDAQ mid-July rally could occur.
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Unit-Linked Insuranace Policies (ULIPs) are a tax efficient method for Portgual residents to invest, save and pass on wealth.
May is not an inspiring month for investors. Only a couple of sectors usually post positive gains. Election years are no different.
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In stark contrast to last year, 2023 is off to a bullish start. S&P 500 finished the month strong with a 6.2% gain. The January Barometer is positive! This is the best S&P January since 2019 which was also the last year the S&P 500 completed our bullish January Indicator Trifecta. The January Indicator Trifecta …

January’s Forecast for 2023 Read More »

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Jerome Powell and the rest of his Federal Reserve Board Members face tough decisions in 2023 as structural supply chain challenges keep inflation rates intolerably high. Looking at two previous Fed chairs, we have to decide who will provide the precedent for Jerome’s decisions in 2023. Meet Arthur Burns In the late 1970’s, Fed Chairman …

Jerome’s Precedent Read More »

Next week inflation numbers and the final Fed meeting for 2022 will provide investors a narrative for the rest of the years trading. As the market is up strongly in the last 5 weeks, energy is starting to signal economic weakness going forward.
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With greater than 5% gain in the main US indexes in both October and November this year, December is expected to start slow and then gain steam as the Santa Clause Rally comes to town.
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