Seasonal Strategy Update: Election Years
Seasonality is problematic this year, likely due to the elections and politics around another COVID stimulus package. Still, time and history work for the strategy.
FRIDAY INVESTMENT TALK: COVID Property Trends, Abenomics and the EU, and the US Tech Sell Off
A Narrow Market in August
US stock markets continue to see an extreme concentration of interest in a small number of stocks. Does this signal an imminent sell off or will market participation broaden?
Friday Investment Talk: FAAMG, COVID Vaccines, Market Update
Concentration in the largest companies continues to increase. The top 5 US companies are now larger than all of Europe’s markets combined. Covid vaccinations are comining this fall. Which companies could gain and will people accept the new vaccine?
FRIDAY INVESTMENT TALK: Future Technologies, Russia, Growth to Value, AAII Sentiment, MELI
Again looking at the hot tech sector, the potential value to growth rotation, Russia as a value and dividend play, and some contrarian bullish indictaors for stocks while bonds are simply stretched very far. Mercado Libre (MELI) stock reports next week and BAML is out with a nice target price for the bulls.
Friday Investment Talk: Valuations, Growth to Value Transition, Gold and Healthcare Stocks
Are markets overbought? The narrow bull market in FAANG and some other technology stocks has led to concern among analysts that stocks are out of sync with the economy. We explore how interest rate assumptions affect analyst pricing in discounted cash flow models and lead to inflated asset prices. A discussion of the opposite case Read more ➝
Friday Investment Talk: Brexit and EU during COVID, US Fed Actions, Inflation and the Summer Market
As Europe reopens, UK’s BOE announces the economic recovery will be ‘V-shaped’. Tourist travel seems to be picking up and markets (especially tech stocks) reacted well – as is usual in this seasonal bullish period. Q2 earnings reports are on the horizon, with stocks priced for perfection.
Fiscal stimilus is ending in the US as government transfer reciepts and other forms of unemployment support expire. As elections come to the forefront and COVID cases increase further aid is likely. The effects on inflation will be muted until employment levels come back and wages increase.
COVID Emergency Funds, the Price of Gold, and the Stock Market
Having one’s cake and not eating it. When I came to Russia, my first summer was hot and sunny and I took to cycling, exploring the city’s cycle paths, one of my favourites being the one that runs along Bolshaya Nikitskaya up to the Garden Ring. For those unfamiliar, the Garden Ring is a ring Read more ➝
Seasonal Strategy: April Bounce Helps
Usually at this time of the year, early-April, stock markets would have had a nice seasonal rally. Well, there is nothing usual about the market or the economy this time.
As of today, the new bear market closing lows were on March 23. From their highs DJIA was down 37.1% and S&P 500 was down 33.9%.
Since then the market has rebounded to trim those losses.
Now we look to position for the worst months of the year ahead.
April Outlook: Bear Market Bounce
Everyone seems to be hoping for the stock market to find support here, already so much damage has been done.
A great deal of uncertainty remains for the world economy and health crisis. April looks like a good time for a bear market bounce.
Further out, investors should experience a rough ride in the market this year with quite a bit of choppy trading.