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Our observations, insights and news from the investment world

Bonds are now worst performers than stocks since the beginning of the year. Such pessimism in bond prices has not been seen for decades. Meanwhile, interest rate hikes are usually bullish for equities during the first few months of increases. Value stocks broke out to new highs this week as market internals turn more bullish. …

Friday Investment Talk: Bonds Weakness and Equity Strength Read More »

Markets staged a massive rebound this week, led by some of the worst performing stocks including Chinese and tech names. Investors took their lead from the US Federal Reserves hawkish comments supporting sustained interest rate hikes to control inflation while not reducing GDP growth expectations. Buy signals sprouted across many indicators. Put/Call Ratios are rolling …

Friday Investment Talk: Markets Rebound Read More »

Bond Yields are nearing 2% in US and Italy. This has killed the long term Austrian bond we love to look at. Investing in energy, precious metals and defense contractors has paid off since the start of the year. Our strategies show strong outperformance compared to the $SPX. Recession is predicted by the S&P 500 …

Friday Investment Talk: Bond Yields, AVC Investment Strategy, Recession Read More »

What is the probability now of a recession? With employment optimism pitted against inflation pessimism, we look at the odds.
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A hot war has created hot commodity prices. Wheat was a big gainer this week, but also oil and non-ferrous metals took off. Brazil has shown strength this year as its relative strength outperforms many sectors. Healthcare companies such as our favorite BMY have a made a huge comeback this year. Selling continues everywhere else, …

Friday Investment Talk: Commodities Read More »

A surprising Russian invasion in Ukraine has thrown the world back to a Cold War status. Mid-term election years are when these types of political and economic upheavals usually reveal their ugly heads. Going forward the market will work to find a bottom during a likely volatile year for investors.
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Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) cannot replace Europe’s reliance on Russia for heating fuel. Russia is a main supplier of both piped gas and LNG. Markets are relying a quick resolution to the Ukraine war. A ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’ event has taken place so far this year. Is this move sustainable? Market Indicators …

Friday Investment Talk: Gas Supplies, Russia-Ukraine, Bullish Markets Read More »

In mid-term election years, US markets perform generally well in March. Leadership in small caps stocks is discernible.
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Reports are circulating in the British press that the Home Secretary (UK’s interior Minister) will announce an end to the so-called Golden Visa for UK immigrants. These Visas allowed High Net Worth individuals to buy a fast track to UK residency and ultimately citizenship.

Markets were again weak with the $SPX falling 1.6% during the usually bullish options expirations week. European markets and gold showed strength, while energy stocks stay on their 2022 roll. Inflation fears has caused JP Morgan to look for 7 interest rate increase in 2022, yet none greater than 25 bps. Bank of America sees …

Friday Investment Talk: Europe, Inflation, Interest Rates Read More »

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