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Ideas

Our observations, insights and news from the investment world

Forecasting a Recession

JeromePowell
What is the probability now of a recession? With employment optimism pitted against inflation pessimism, we look at the odds.
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Cold War 2.0

A surprising Russian invasion in Ukraine has thrown the world back to a Cold War status. Mid-term election years are when these types of political and economic upheavals usually reveal their ugly heads. Going forward the market will work to find a bottom during a likely volatile year for investors.
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March Relief

In mid-term election years, US markets perform generally well in March. Leadership in small caps stocks is discernible.
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End of “golden” visa for UK immigration

Reports are circulating in the British press that the Home Secretary (UK’s interior Minister) will announce an end to the so-called Golden Visa for UK immigrants. These Visas allowed High Net Worth individuals to buy a fast track to UK residency and ultimately citizenship.

Hot CPI

Today's hot CPI numbers burned the market. The Fed's Bullard gets hawkish and may spell problems for the market going forward in February.
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February Seasonality

February has been getting lousier for investors. The first half is usually better than the second. Utilities and High Tech start bullish seasonal trends soon.
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More Volatility in February

While the fundamental economic outlook remains positive for US markets, inflation and high stock multiples are wearing on investor sentiment. February could offer a reprieve for the market in the volatile mid-term election year.
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Reduction in Life Expectations means State Pension “Bonus” – UK Pensions Update 2022

A little known fact is one of the multitude of variables used by the UK pensions authority to calculate state pension liabilities involve both expected mortality AND the ratio that has on time spent working verses retirement.

Biotech – Analysis and Outlook

AVC have focused on the two leading Biotech ETFs over the last few years, but it has been a tough year. We follow XBI and IBB. XBI is SPDR S&P Biotech, and IBB is iShares Biotechnology.

January Market Expectations

Mid-Term Januarys usually provide less than optimal market conditions for investors. They also are less prescriptive of the rest of the year's returns.
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This information is not an individual investment recommendation, and the financial instruments or transactions mentioned in it may not correspond to your investment profile and investment goals (expectations). It is your task to determine whether a financial instrument or transaction matches your interests, investment objectives, investment horizon and acceptable risk level. AVC Adisvory, Inc. and its affiliates are not liable for possible losses in case of making transactions or investing in the financial instruments mentioned in this information, and do not recommend using this information as the only source of information when making an investment decision.

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