July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.
The best six months of the year for certain US stock indexes has ended. A defensive stance is warranted as the summer months arrive.
Usually at this time of the year, early-April, stock markets would have had a nice seasonal rally. Well, there is nothing usual about the market or the economy this time.
As of today, the new bear market closing lows were on March 23. From their highs DJIA was down 37.1% and S&P 500 was down 33.9%.
Since then the market has rebounded to trim those losses.
Now we look to position for the worst months of the year ahead.
Markets are up strongly since issuing the recent Buy Signal. The next two weeks often have retracements of monst of the gains in the first days of November. This mid-November weakness is a good time to add to positions.
We lay out the buy points and stop losses for the Tactical ETF Portfolios based on the the Seasonal Trade Strategy
There are 13 sector seasonalities that enter favorable periods in October. some last only a few months, others half the year. Entry levels and expected returns are exposed.
Below we show a correlation matrix of some of the more popular US ETFs. As a reminder, the closer the correlation is to +1 the stronger the positive relationship. And the closer the number to —1 the stronger the negative relationship. How can we use this knowledge? Two ways: Diversification. One of the tenants of Read more ➝
Oil prices usually enter a weak period starting in September. Is it playable? Seasonality holds true this year so far. Trades in defensive sectors doing well so far.