This week we review how US real negative interest rates have pressured the USD while giving strength to the Euro and some emerging market currencies and sovereign debt. We look at commodities, FAANG stocks, china and even Vietnam.
Oil prices usually enter a weak period starting in September. Is it playable? Seasonality holds true this year so far. Trades in defensive sectors doing well so far.
Developed markets are more correlated with oil than Emerging Markets. Russia and Gulf states are not as correlated to oil as many investors think.
Global stocks rose modestly amid a strong rally in the energy sector. Rising oil prices, surging M&A activity and central bank stimulus measures helped to support world stock prices despite a slowdown in U.S. economic growth during the first quarter. Emerging markets rallied as market observers pushed back the timing of an increase in interest Read more ➝
The main US indexes each hit new highs last week and multiple times in February. The broad market will most likely grind higher for another week or two. However, if one or more of the indices break back down below the recent breakout level, this will most likely trigger a 2% to 5% pull back. Read more ➝