July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.
Stocks are still bullish from a technical point of view – the Put/Call ratio is overbought, but not yet negative.
All time highs for percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages (95%).
Seasonality is generally weak in summer months, but summers are better in election years than other months in election years, and better than in summer months in non-election years. Research from Bank of America,
Cylicals could take the lead in the summer, as social media and tech companies under polical pressure.
We lay out the buy points and stop losses for the Tactical ETF Portfolios based on the the Seasonal Trade Strategy
There are 13 sector seasonalities that enter favorable periods in October. some last only a few months, others half the year. Entry levels and expected returns are exposed.
Below we show a correlation matrix of some of the more popular US ETFs. As a reminder, the closer the correlation is to +1 the stronger the positive relationship. And the closer the number to —1 the stronger the negative relationship. How can we use this knowledge? Two ways: Diversification. One of the tenants of Read more ➝
July starts strong, but often finishes weaker. The week after Options Expiration week – this year starting on the 22nd – can be particularly volatile. July ends the NASDAQ’s best eight months, and starts its worst four months . We will provide notification when the NASDAQ sell signal comes.