Seasonal ETF Trade Updates

July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.

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Friday Investment Talks

Friday Investment Talk: Overbought Markets Headed Into Summer

Stocks are still bullish from a technical point of view – the Put/Call ratio is overbought, but not yet negative.

All time highs for percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages (95%).

Seasonality is generally weak in summer months, but summers are better in election years than other months in election years, and better than in summer months in non-election years. Research from Bank of America,

Cylicals could take the lead in the summer, as social media and tech companies under polical pressure.

Seasonal Trade Strategy: July

July starts strong, but often finishes weaker. The week after Options Expiration week – this year starting on the 22nd – can be particularly volatile. July ends the NASDAQ’s best eight months, and starts its worst four months . We will provide notification when the NASDAQ sell signal comes.

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