The global semiconductor shortage calls for capital investments. Commodity inflation is here. CPIs are low still, but long bonds sell off. Biotech is a sweet spot.
Over the last few days, Treasury yields have risen significantly as Democratic wins in Georgia are likely to lead to more COVID relief spending. Besides looking at the the potential effects on the market, we address a few strategies to mitigate the risk of rising rates in a fixed income portfolio.
Stocks are still bullish from a technical point of view – the Put/Call ratio is overbought, but not yet negative.
All time highs for percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages (95%).
Seasonality is generally weak in summer months, but summers are better in election years than other months in election years, and better than in summer months in non-election years. Research from Bank of America,
Cylicals could take the lead in the summer, as social media and tech companies under polical pressure.
We have a just launched the first session of our new weekly “Friday Investment Talk” series. This week Alan, Mike, and I discuss the continuation of the bull market’s posture. Mike speaks of how client’s ‘fear of missing out’ leads to overly concentrated portfolios. Alan highlights how the recent Chinese sell off could be a buying opportunity, as other Asian markets look strong.
So far, April has regained some of this years losses – in fact the NASDAQ is again positive for 2020.
What should investors do now that markets are entering the weakest period of the year? How bad could this year be, actually?
The Seasonal Buy Signal is on Hold. The bull market is still in waiting.
Below we show a correlation matrix of some of the more popular US ETFs. As a reminder, the closer the correlation is to +1 the stronger the positive relationship. And the closer the number to —1 the stronger the negative relationship. How can we use this knowledge? Two ways: Diversification. One of the tenants of Read more ➝
Oil prices usually enter a weak period starting in September. Is it playable? Seasonality holds true this year so far. Trades in defensive sectors doing well so far.
The slower moving MACD indicator applied to NASDAQ turned negative. Proceed with caution for the next 4 months.