July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.
Large daily moves in both directions of 2-5% and huge intraday swings have taken a toll on markets and psyches. But the February 28 low has held through this week’s wild swings.
According to sector seasonality, there are two sectors that begin their seasonally favorable periods in March: High-Tech and Utilities.
Markets are up strongly since issuing the recent Buy Signal. The next two weeks often have retracements of monst of the gains in the first days of November. This mid-November weakness is a good time to add to positions.
We lay out the buy points and stop losses for the Tactical ETF Portfolios based on the the Seasonal Trade Strategy
There are 13 sector seasonalities that enter favorable periods in October. some last only a few months, others half the year. Entry levels and expected returns are exposed.
July starts strong, but often finishes weaker. The week after Options Expiration week – this year starting on the 22nd – can be particularly volatile. July ends the NASDAQ’s best eight months, and starts its worst four months . We will provide notification when the NASDAQ sell signal comes.