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Seasonal Strategy Update: Fear in October Unleashes the Seasonal Bull

October Market Bear
October is the last month of the worst six months for the S&P 500 and worst four months for the NASDAQ. So it is time to begin preparing for a switch to a more bullish stance.

Seasonal Trade Strategy Update: New highs at a weak time

We noted previously that the market would likely work its way higher in the first few weeks of September. Now momentum appears to be fading short of previous all-time highs. With the Fed’s interest rate cut behind us, future price increases need support from alleviating trade issues and more interest rate cuts. Neither of those factors exist yet.
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Correlations: How To Really Diversify

correlations with SPY (short)

Below we show a correlation matrix of some of the more popular US ETFs. As a reminder, the closer the correlation is to +1 the stronger the positive relationship. And the closer the number to —1 the stronger the negative relationship. How can we use this knowledge? Two ways: Diversification. One of the tenants of …

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Seasonal Trading Strategy Update: Watch Oil

September Oil
Oil prices usually enter a weak period starting in September. Is it playable? Seasonality holds true this year so far. Trades in defensive sectors doing well so far.
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Option Trade Idea: MSFT

We look at a short term bullish trade on MSFT, as the stock is outperforming the market. The difficult seasonality make this trade more speculative in nature.
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Seasonal Trading Strategy: Current Market Review

Pending anymore tweets and geopolictical uphevals, we can expect the market to move higher toward the July highs until the last week of the September. Strong bullish market moves will likely remain elusive until November.
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Seasonal Trade Strategy: September – Part 2

September's markets can be much weaker than usual. Investors often looking to precious metals and bonds as areas of safety. Semiconductors are usually the weakest sector.
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Seasonal Trade Strategy: September

Even during pre-election years in the US, markets are their weakest in September. The last week of the month is extremely weak.
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Market Update: Market in Confirmed Uptrend

Markets traded significantly higher today on large volume. This signals a follow through day from last Monday's lows. Caution is warrented when trading in summer months.
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Current State of Market Internals

CNN Fear and Greed Indicator
We review common measures of volatility, breadth, volume and investor setiment to determine how much more of a pullback the US markets might witness.
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This information is not an individual investment recommendation, and the financial instruments or transactions mentioned in it may not correspond to your investment profile and investment goals (expectations). It is your task to determine whether a financial instrument or transaction matches your interests, investment objectives, investment horizon and acceptable risk level. AVC Adisvory, Inc. and its affiliates are not liable for possible losses in case of making transactions or investing in the financial instruments mentioned in this information, and do not recommend using this information as the only source of information when making an investment decision.

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