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Tag: vix

September is historically one of the weakest months for equities, and so far, the month is living up to its reputation. Through 9/15, the S&P 500 (SPX) is down about 1.3%, but for the month that holds the “weakest month of the year” title that seems a bit tame. Studies show that it has historically …

September’s Dark Side Read More »

With realized market volatility remaining muted in recent weeks and expected volatility (i.e., the VIX) sitting at multi-year lows, today we examined the relationship in the perspective of forward returns.
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For about 6 weeks the market has moved higher. This momentum takes many indicators to extremely overbought levels. This typically leads to weak price action going forward.
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Today's hot CPI numbers burned the market. The Fed's Bullard gets hawkish and may spell problems for the market going forward in February.
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Markets were on a wild ride in January, especially this last week. We expected this would be the 4th negative week for the markets, but strength in the last few hours turned this week positive. On many levels and by many measures the market is extremely oversold, but so far few buy signals have developed. …

Friday Investment Talk: Fear and Market Suffering Read More »

With such a highly divisive election coming in November, a ‘VIX bubble’ has appeared. This is distorting how traders are reacting to the current market sell off.
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The market had two positive days in a row. Even with an amazingly bad employment report this morning, the market trades higher today. Other indicators are improving elsewhere, and perhaps a stronger rally could occur.
Volatility in the US has exploded, throwing the markets into disarray. The intermediate-term trend is bearish, with extreme oversold conditions likely to produce sharp, but short-lived, rallies. We will look at some important indicators to see how oversold the markets are and what usually happens at times when markets sell off quickly.
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