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August Seasonality: Best Month for Tech and Small Caps?

Author: Christopher Davies Posted in: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, Investment ideas, Personal financeTags: , , , , , , , ,

The month of August is usually one of the worst months of the year for US stocks. In years of a US presidential election (like 2020), August holds a special spot in the calendar for certain stocks.

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Friday Investment Talk: Gaming Companies and TAM, Momentum Stock Sell Off, Hedging with ETFs, Natural Gas and Gazprom

Author: Christopher Davies Posted in: Analytics, Investing basics, Investment ideas, Personal financeTags: , , , , , , , , , ,
, Seasonal ETF Trade Updates

We cover everything from gaming market size to natural gas prices. We even give a glimpse of some of the research tools we use to find secor based ETFs. Momentum stocks and hedging ideas are also tossed around in this week’s short session.

Friday Investment Talk: Valuations, Growth to Value Transition, Gold and Healthcare Stocks

Author: Christopher Davies Posted in: Analytics, Investing basics, Investment ideas, Personal financeTags: , , , , ,
, Seasonal ETF Trade Updates

Are markets overbought? The narrow bull market in FAANG and some other technology stocks has led to concern among analysts that stocks are out of sync with the economy. We explore how interest rate assumptions affect analyst pricing in discounted cash flow models and lead to inflated asset prices.  A discussion of the opposite case Read more ➝

July Seasonality: Mid Month Update

Author: Christopher Davies Posted in: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, Investing basics, Investment ideasTags: , , , , , ,

NASDAQ’s mid-year rally (described here in late June) came to an end on July 14. From mid-July, the second quarter is usually plagued with poor performance. Enthusiam and large amounts of cash on the sidelines could keep stock prices aflot. Hower, defensive positioning seems a more reasonable bet.

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DIVIDEND INVESTMENT RESEARCH UPDATE: MLPs and REITs volatile

Author: Christopher Davies Posted in: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, Investment ideasTags:

Here we update our Dividend Investment Research (DIR) that we initiated in May. In review, our momentum approach involves an active management of ETFs. We run monthly screens that show the top performing stocks from each of 6 Dividend ETF categories. We focus on the top 5 stocks for investment, and would sell them if they Read more ➝

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Friday Investment Talk: Gold, Interest Rates, Russia and Natural Gas, China, Fuel Cells and EVs

Author: Christopher Davies Posted in: Analytics, Investment ideas, News, Personal financeTags: , ,
, Seasonal ETF Trade Updates

July remains bullish as low interest rates fuel stock returns and gold gains. Russia can be viewed as a high dividend value opportunity if oil prices can remain elevated, and natural gas prices stabilize. A note from Merrill Lynch outlines the demand for hydrogen fuel cells that support natural gas (UNG) prices. China continues to Read more ➝

Friday Investment Talk: Brexit and EU during COVID, US Fed Actions, Inflation and the Summer Market

Author: Christopher Davies Posted in: Analytics, News, Personal financeTags: , , ,
, Seasonal ETF Trade Updates

As Europe reopens, UK’s BOE announces the economic recovery will be ‘V-shaped’. Tourist travel seems to be picking up and markets (especially tech stocks) reacted well – as is usual in this seasonal bullish period. Q2 earnings reports are on the horizon, with stocks priced for perfection.

Fiscal stimilus is ending in the US as government transfer reciepts and other forms of unemployment support expire. As elections come to the forefront and COVID cases increase further aid is likely. The effects on inflation will be muted until employment levels come back and wages increase.

Seasonal ETF Trade Updates

Author: Christopher Davies Posted in: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, Personal financeTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.

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