Ideas
Our observations, insights and news from the investment world
Next week inflation numbers and the final Fed meeting for 2022 will provide investors a narrative for the rest of the years trading. As the market is up strongly in the last 5 weeks, energy is starting to signal economic weakness going forward.
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- 2.12.2022
- Categories: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, AVC UL Subscription, Investment ideas
- Tags: DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonality
With greater than 5% gain in the main US indexes in both October and November this year, December is expected to start slow and then gain steam as the Santa Clause Rally comes to town.
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With the Dow up over 14% so far in October 2022, US markets are on pace to record their best October performance ever going back to 1901. While many retail investors remain bearish (see the AAII Sentiment Poll results below), we feel a new bull market is emerging – at least for the near term. …
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- 30.09.2022
- Categories: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, AVC UL Subscription, Personal finance
- Tags: DJIA, GDP, inflation, interest rates, QQQ, S&P 500, Seasonality
October is known as the 'bear killer' month. In US mid-term election years it can provide especially strong returns. With the economy faltering and inflation still too hot, investors are skeptical. We wait for confirmed bullish signals as markets set up for a bounce.
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The US presidential election cycle last four years and shows definitive patterns historical that point to weakness in the first half of the second year. This leads to a run up in Q4 following thru to Q1 of year 3. This is known as the 'sweet spot' for investors.
- 26.08.2022
- Categories: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, Personal finance
- Tags: Fed, GDP, Seasonality
The summer rally has impressed as the major averages pushed back to their respective 200-day moving averages, a key technical level where they stalled last week. Now they are testing new short-term support around the June highs and the 50-day moving averages. Investors are clearly not out of the woods yet.
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- 3.08.2022
- Categories: Analytics, AVC Pro Subscription, AVC UL Subscription
- Tags: market review, NYMO, NYSI, Put/Call Ratios, S&P 500, vix
For about 6 weeks the market has moved higher. This momentum takes many indicators to extremely overbought levels. This typically leads to weak price action going forward.
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- 11.06.2022
- Categories: AVC Pro Subscription, AVC UL Subscription, Investment ideas, Personal finance
- Tags: BITO, DIA, FXI, GLD, KWEB, QQQ, SLV, SPX
US markets besieged by unexpected inflation data. Chinese stocks get a boost from stimulus. Gold looks bullish.
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Either the US is already half way into a recession or maybe half way through one. Markets perform well in most case before and after recessions. Weakness is greatest during recessions.
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- 31.05.2022
- Categories: Investment ideas, News, Personal finance
- Tags: FB, IWM, MSFT, QQQ, SPY
Bullish Indicators for US markets. News highlights deglobalization, but trends do not show the threat.