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Tag: Seasonality

May is a tricky month. May in post election years are generally positive, and are one of the best months of the year.
Last week, the MACD line on the two of the largest and well followed US Indexes rolled over to sell signals. This ends the bullish 6-month period through April.
We count new Billionaires, while Biden sees room to tax. Jim Grant says the Fed is likely to get blind-sided. Seasonality hits a wall.
Macroeconomic charts say industrials will do well. China and US push limits and fears of trade wars and currency problems. Oil remains strong, as seasonality supports more large cap strength.

Value stocks have been on a tear, while growth stocks and tech leaders have taken a back seat since late January. This has pressured the overall market indexes, e.g. the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.  March volatility arrived as promised and next week could exacerbate into more weakness as put-call ratios continue to rise and …

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April is the best month for Dow stocks. Its still good in post-election years.
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Seasonality has slightly moved forward this month. Will we see more weakness ahead, as this month's gains are above average already with last week's move from the US stimulus announcement?
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March has a tendency to be rather volatile - weaker in post-election years than normal. Saint Patrick's Day and Triple Witching Options Expiration Week offer certain interesting trade opportunities.
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The month of February is generally pretty weak for traders, but the situation in post-election years is stunningly poor. After such a strong run since the November elections this February deserves special attention.
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Fidelity is bullish on China. Goldman Sachs likes OZON. ARK's Cathie Wood likes space exploration. But, seasonality does not bode well for markets in late January/February.
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