Friday Investment Talk: Oil, China, Economic Cycle

According to Jim Cramer’s famous macro investment chart, the US is currently in the early stages of a growth cycle that puts industrials and “smoke stack” companies at the forefront of investors radar.  Inflation and higher interest rates remain a few years out.

Conflicting accounts of oil’s bullishness are reviewed in light of the potential overshoot for energy demand after the COIVD crisis. By most measures, the market is only off 5% since pre-crisis with most of the shortfall coming from airline demand.

China and the US trade harsh words as the US ramps up a trade deficit rivaling none before. The USD has been bid up on growth forecasts that foresee some emerging market inflation and end to ‘easy money’ policies. This has put pressure on Chinese stocks and US small cap companies.

Markets continue their weak seasonality, although the Dow stocks could get a boost in April. With grow stock out of fashion, quick profits are hard to come by.

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