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, Seasonal Strategy Update: Tactical Switch

Markets are still bullish, although even more overbought than last week. Today’s unexpected employment report provides fuel for higher prices. MLPs are leading momentum in all high dividend paying ETFs. Defense and Transportation (Airlines) showed strength this week. Value plays have rebounded sharply, while software companies look vulnerable with high valuations. Defaults are rising. Investors have piled money into cash equivalents. We look at the EUR/USD and Palladium also.

, Seasonal Strategy Update: Tactical Switch

Stocks are still bullish from a technical point of view – the Put/Call ratio is overbought, but not yet negative.

All time highs for percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages (95%).

Seasonality is generally weak in summer months, but summers are better in election years than other months in election years, and better than in summer months in non-election years. Research from Bank of America,

Cylicals could take the lead in the summer, as social media and tech companies under polical pressure.

Since broad domestic equity indices posted a bottom on March 23rd, they have not looked back. In fact, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have each rebounded with price returns in excess of 30%.

As a result of this upward movement a number of indicators have turned positive. What does this mean longer term for equity markets?

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US and China tensions are beginning to boil over after China passed a plan to increase its security presence in Hong Kong.

The US State Department no longer considers Hong Kong to have significant autonomy and now threatens to revoke the special current special status it enjoys.

Which US listed companies derive large amounts of revenue from Hong Kong and China? We look at how changes affect these companies and the indexes they comprise.

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, Seasonal Strategy Update: Tactical Switch

We have a just launched the first session of our new weekly “Friday Investment Talk” series. This week Alan, Mike, and I discuss the continuation of the bull market’s posture. Mike speaks of how client’s ‘fear of missing out’ leads to overly concentrated portfolios. Alan highlights how the recent Chinese sell off could be a buying opportunity, as other Asian markets look strong.

, Seasonal Strategy Update: Tactical Switch

This is the first of a new series of monthly research articles designed to help investors build high quality dividend growth stock portfolios for the long term.

AVC Advisory’s Dividend Investing
Research (DIR) uses momentum trading strategies to identify which dividend securities are trading in a positive manner relative to both the market and other income investements.

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, Seasonal Strategy Update: Tactical Switch

Having one’s cake and not eating it. When I came to Russia, my first summer was hot and sunny and I took to cycling, exploring the city’s cycle paths, one of my favourites being the one that runs along Bolshaya Nikitskaya up to the Garden Ring. For those unfamiliar, the Garden Ring is a ring Read more ➝