This week we review how US real negative interest rates have pressured the USD while giving strength to the Euro and some emerging market currencies and sovereign debt. We look at commodities, FAANG stocks, china and even Vietnam.
AVC Advisory’s Alan McGregor and Michael Barry interview Andrey Movchan, an asset manager and non-resident scholar of the Carnegie Moscow Center.
The month of August is usually one of the worst months of the year for US stocks. In years of a US presidential election (like 2020), August holds a special spot in the calendar for certain stocks.
Friday Investment Talk: Gaming Companies and TAM, Momentum Stock Sell Off, Hedging with ETFs, Natural Gas and Gazprom
We cover everything from gaming market size to natural gas prices. We even give a glimpse of some of the research tools we use to find secor based ETFs. Momentum stocks and hedging ideas are also tossed around in this week’s short session.
Are markets overbought? The narrow bull market in FAANG and some other technology stocks has led to concern among analysts that stocks are out of sync with the economy. We explore how interest rate assumptions affect analyst pricing in discounted cash flow models and lead to inflated asset prices. A discussion of the opposite case Read more ➝
July remains bullish as low interest rates fuel stock returns and gold gains. Russia can be viewed as a high dividend value opportunity if oil prices can remain elevated, and natural gas prices stabilize. A note from Merrill Lynch outlines the demand for hydrogen fuel cells that support natural gas (UNG) prices. China continues to Read more ➝
As Europe reopens, UK’s BOE announces the economic recovery will be ‘V-shaped’. Tourist travel seems to be picking up and markets (especially tech stocks) reacted well – as is usual in this seasonal bullish period. Q2 earnings reports are on the horizon, with stocks priced for perfection.
Fiscal stimilus is ending in the US as government transfer reciepts and other forms of unemployment support expire. As elections come to the forefront and COVID cases increase further aid is likely. The effects on inflation will be muted until employment levels come back and wages increase.
July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.
The increase is COVID cases in the US along with the upcoming presidential election make for an interesting summer of investors. July through October performance is a high predictor of the election. Is a July rally likely?
AVC partners review Veronika’s participation in the Russian Portfolio Investment Conference where she discussed our Dividend Investment Research (DIR), and the new 13 to 15% income tax for Russian non-residents, down from 30%. We reviewed the influence of recent central bank actions stocks and bond pricing. Credit quality is likely to become more of Read more ➝