Unlike weather and the biblical tales, stock markets in March usually start with stability and turn wild with volatility towards the end.
January finished January down 0.2%. But the does not necessarily meaan the rest of the year will be. We look at the historical record to see how other years performed when January did not do well. It turns out 2 of 3 indicators often are enough to propel the markets higher.
Fundamentally speaking, US growth is slowing. Technically the markets are consolidating. After a steady rise from early-October through mid-January, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ appear to be taking a breather. Monetary policy remains loose, interest rates are low and are likely to remain low. QE4 or repo market support is now expected to continue through at least April 2020. February is seasonally neutral for markets, and investor sentiment is fading. Any pause in market trends is likely short-lived.
Novemeber is tracking the seasonal patterns very closely. We still expect a mild pullback early next week, but from then on we are likely to see post-Thanksgiving gains. Early December can be disappointing for bullish traders, but as Christmas approaches the bulls come back to the parade.
November is generally a very good month for US stocks. However, in years preceeding US Presidential elections, November has not always shown a strong performance. This year, options expiration week comes early. Our calendar shows the dates investors need to watch.
We lay out the buy points and stop losses for the Tactical ETF Portfolios based on the the Seasonal Trade Strategy
We look at a short term bullish trade on MSFT, as the stock is outperforming the market. The difficult seasonality make this trade more speculative in nature.
Pending anymore tweets and geopolictical uphevals, we can expect the market to move higher toward the July highs until the last week of the September. Strong bullish market moves will likely remain elusive until November.
Even during pre-election years in the US, markets are their weakest in September. The last week of the month is extremely weak.
August has been the worst performing month of the year over the last 31 years. Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the US population was farming. Now that less …
Seasonal Trade Strategy: August Read More »
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