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After the close on Thursday, the main US markets entered a bear market for the first time in 11 years. A simple virus killed the bull. How long do bear markets last, and are they always accompanied by a recession? We take a look at history to find answers.
Large daily moves in both directions of 2-5% and huge intraday swings have taken a toll on markets and psyches. But the February 28 low has held through this week’s wild swings. According to sector seasonality, there are two sectors that begin their seasonally favorable periods in March: High-Tech and Utilities.
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Unlike weather and the biblical tales, stock markets in March usually start with stability and turn wild with volatility towards the end.
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Large Cap stocks make up most of the gains this year, far outpacing smaller stocks. A reversal of this trend could come soon, in March even.
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January finished January down 0.2%. But the does not necessarily meaan the rest of the year will be. We look at the historical record to see how other years performed when January did not do well. It turns out 2 of 3 indicators often are enough to propel the markets higher.
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Fundamentally speaking, US growth is slowing. Technically the markets are consolidating. After a steady rise from early-October through mid-January, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ appear to be taking a breather. Monetary policy remains loose, interest rates are low and are likely to remain low. QE4 or repo market support is now expected to continue through at least April 2020. February is seasonally neutral for markets, and investor sentiment is fading. Any pause in market trends is likely short-lived.
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Natural Gas, Energy and Copper still have to show signs of life to fulfill their usual bullish winter runs. Meanwhile, Strong US equity markets have lead to excellent returns in the model portfolios that adhere to seasonal trade stratagies. Expect some modest seasonal weakness soon, though.
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With the new year and new decade already here, the markets closed on one of the strongest years for the US equity market in the past decade.  The S&P 500 (SPX) was up nearly 29% in 2019 - the second best year in the 2010s, only 2013’s return of just over 29% beat it. All broad sectors produce gains last year, with nine out of the 11 broad sector SPDR ETFs posting gains greater than 20%. The top three sectors, using SPDR ETFs as proxies, were technology (XLK), communication services (XLC, basically a technology ETF), and financials (XLF), returning 47.90%, 29.92%, and 29.22%, respectively. Energy (XLE), on the other hand, was
With worldwide central bank rate cuts at record highs and inflated SPX valuations, Wall Street earnings estimates for Q1 2020 look excessive. This is a typical sign of last cycle bull market. Mega-caps are able to outperform and hold earnings margins, but can they continue? We review what JP Morgan and BAML analysts have to say about the current state of the US economic landscape. Why would they make top recommendations in Energy, Small Caps, Industrials and Transportation for 2020?
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January is typically a good month for US stocks. However, during election years that is not always the case. Nasdaq stocks usually perform the best in January.
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