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, Seasonal Trades and Portfolio Update

If you approaching pension age and are resident in a low tax jurisdiction (Russia, for example), you could take advantage of the UK’s flexible drawdown regime from age 55. If you are non-resident for tax purposes, although you might in future return to the UK to live, or indeed to another country, you may be able to receive the full value of your fund liability to UK tax and so without deduction of tax at source. By investing the proceeds properly, you could obtain tax free growth whilst you are outside the UK and then benefit from withdrawals of 5% per annum tax free when you are back in the UK.

, Seasonal Trades and Portfolio Update

There are three main tax benefits of using offshore life assurance policies when you are considered a UK tax resident, but do not maintain ‘domiciled status’ in the UK. These include tax free investments, no Capital Gains Tax, and Tax Deferred Withdrawl Allowances.

There are specific ways that HMRC calculates taxable benefits on proceeds of insurance bonds during retirement. These include Top Slicing and Time Apportioned Relief.

Using trusts can also be a benefit to transferring wealth with reduced tax implications.

, Seasonal Trades and Portfolio Update

Relative strength-based investing performs best when there is a high level of dispersion between market leaders and laggards. Since the beginning of this year, this has been the case. Semicondutors, software, waste management and computer technology sectors are leading, while oil related stocks are lagging.

Using relative strength-based investing strategies can lead to significant long term market outperfomance compared to ‘buy and hold’ strategies.

, Seasonal Trades and Portfolio Update

January finished January down 0.2%. But the does not necessarily meaan the rest of the year will be. We look at the historical record to see how other years performed when January did not do well. It turns out 2 of 3 indicators often are enough to propel the markets higher.

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, Seasonal Trades and Portfolio Update

UK Car Park company Park First has run into trouble. We have strong doubts that investors will recieve any money back.
This is another example of an investment (we avoided and warned against) that has lured many Russian clients into losing all their money. If you have been affected, please seek the correct channels for communicating your dispute.

Fundamentally speaking, US growth is slowing. Technically the markets are consolidating. After a steady rise from early-October through mid-January, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ appear to be taking a breather. Monetary policy remains loose, interest rates are low and are likely to remain low. QE4 or repo market support is now expected to continue through at least April 2020. February is seasonally neutral for markets, and investor sentiment is fading. Any pause in market trends is likely short-lived.

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Natural Gas, Energy and Copper still have to show signs of life to fulfill their usual bullish winter runs. Meanwhile, Strong US equity markets have lead to excellent returns in the model portfolios that adhere to seasonal trade stratagies. Expect some modest seasonal weakness soon, though.

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