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Seasonal Strategy: April Bounce Helps

Usually at this time of the year, early-April, stock markets would have had a nice seasonal rally. Well, there is nothing usual about the market or the economy this time.

As of today, the new bear market closing lows were on March 23. From their highs DJIA was down 37.1% and S&P 500 was down 33.9%.

Since then the market has rebounded to trim those losses.
Now we look to position for the worst months of the year ahead.

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US markets year to date (YTD)

April Outlook: Bear Market Bounce

Everyone seems to be hoping for the stock market to find support here, already so much damage has been done.

A great deal of uncertainty remains for the world economy and health crisis. April looks like a good time for a bear market bounce.

Further out, investors should experience a rough ride in the market this year with quite a bit of choppy trading.

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waterfall

The Battle with COVID-19

One of the fastest and most furious declines in stock market history has taken place . While similar declines have occured, they did not come as rapidlynor straight off a new all-time high. we cannot know if we have hit bottom yet – bottoms are only visible with a bit more hindsight. So speculating on the timing of a rebound, rally and recovery needs some leadership response.

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market vol rollarocaster

Seasonal Update: Tech and Utilities

Large daily moves in both directions of 2-5% and huge intraday swings have taken a toll on markets and psyches. But the February 28 low has held through this week’s wild swings.

According to sector seasonality, there are two sectors that begin their seasonally favorable periods in March: High-Tech and Utilities.

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two of three for January Indicators

January Negative Returns: What does it mean for the rest of the year?

January finished January down 0.2%. But the does not necessarily meaan the rest of the year will be. We look at the historical record to see how other years performed when January did not do well. It turns out 2 of 3 indicators often are enough to propel the markets higher.

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