July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.
The increase is COVID cases in the US along with the upcoming presidential election make for an interesting summer of investors. July through October performance is a high predictor of the election. Is a July rally likely?
July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter. This strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but we must beware of the hype, as summer has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons. Are US election years any different?
Here we update our Dividend Investment Research (DIR) that we initiated last month.
In our momentum appraoch, we run monthly screens that show the top performing stocks from each of 6 Dividend ETF categories.
NASDAQ Seasonality has changed to a more negative stance after today’s negative performance. Caution is warranted in tech stocks. Bonds can be added as summer months can provide weakness to stocks.
Since broad domestic equity indices posted a bottom on March 23rd, they have not looked back. In fact, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have each rebounded with price returns in excess of 30%.
As a result of this upward movement a number of indicators have turned positive. What does this mean longer term for equity markets?
US and China tensions are beginning to boil over after China passed a plan to increase its security presence in Hong Kong.
The US State Department no longer considers Hong Kong to have significant autonomy and now threatens to revoke the special current special status it enjoys.
Which US listed companies derive large amounts of revenue from Hong Kong and China? We look at how changes affect these companies and the indexes they comprise.
We see overvalued prices in certain Tech companies, particluarly specific software companies. At the same time, PMIs may have hit near term lows. Can the classic cyclical sectors take the lead from here?
The month of June ranks near the bottom of all months for most of the US indexes. Expect volatility during the third week. After that it tends to only get worse.
This is the first of a new series of monthly research articles designed to help investors build high quality dividend growth stock portfolios for the long term.
AVC Advisory’s Dividend Investing
Research (DIR) uses momentum trading strategies to identify which dividend securities are trading in a positive manner relative to both the market and other income investements.