NASDAQ’s mid-year rally (described here in late June) came to an end on July 14. From mid-July, the second quarter is usually plagued with poor performance. Enthusiam and large amounts of cash on the sidelines could keep stock prices aflot. Hower, defensive positioning seems a more reasonable bet.
Here we update our Dividend Investment Research (DIR) that we initiated in May. In review, our momentum approach involves an active management of ETFs. We run monthly screens that show the top performing stocks from each of 6 Dividend ETF categories. We focus on the top 5 stocks for investment, and would sell them if they Read more ➝
July remains bullish as low interest rates fuel stock returns and gold gains. Russia can be viewed as a high dividend value opportunity if oil prices can remain elevated, and natural gas prices stabilize. A note from Merrill Lynch outlines the demand for hydrogen fuel cells that support natural gas (UNG) prices. China continues to Read more ➝
As Europe reopens, UK’s BOE announces the economic recovery will be ‘V-shaped’. Tourist travel seems to be picking up and markets (especially tech stocks) reacted well – as is usual in this seasonal bullish period. Q2 earnings reports are on the horizon, with stocks priced for perfection.
Fiscal stimilus is ending in the US as government transfer reciepts and other forms of unemployment support expire. As elections come to the forefront and COVID cases increase further aid is likely. The effects on inflation will be muted until employment levels come back and wages increase.
July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.
The increase is COVID cases in the US along with the upcoming presidential election make for an interesting summer of investors. July through October performance is a high predictor of the election. Is a July rally likely?
AVC partners review Veronika’s participation in the Russian Portfolio Investment Conference where she discussed our Dividend Investment Research (DIR), and the new 13 to 15% income tax for Russian non-residents, down from 30%. We reviewed the influence of recent central bank actions stocks and bond pricing. Credit quality is likely to become more of Read more ➝
This Friday we follow up on our ESG webinar from Wednesday. ESG ETFs have witnessed explosive growth in terms of AUM and number of listings. ESG outperfomance vis-a-vis SPX and even the NDX is evident lately. Certain institutional investors have pushed this stretched trend recently. Many market indicators (both fundamental and technical) are very overbought. Read more ➝
July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter. This strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but we must beware of the hype, as summer has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons. Are US election years any different?
Here we update our Dividend Investment Research (DIR) that we initiated last month.
In our momentum appraoch, we run monthly screens that show the top performing stocks from each of 6 Dividend ETF categories.