July Seasonality: Mid Month Update

NASDAQ’s mid-year rally (described here in late June) came to an end on July 14. From mid-July, the second quarter is usually plagued with poor performance. Enthusiam and large amounts of cash on the sidelines could keep stock prices aflot. Hower, defensive positioning seems a more reasonable bet.

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DIVIDEND INVESTMENT RESEARCH UPDATE: MLPs and REITs volatile

Here we update our Dividend Investment Research (DIR) that we initiated in May. In review, our momentum approach involves an active management of ETFs. We run monthly screens that show the top performing stocks from each of 6 Dividend ETF categories. We focus on the top 5 stocks for investment, and would sell them if they Read more ➝

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FIT July 10

Friday Investment Talk: Gold, Interest Rates, Russia and Natural Gas, China, Fuel Cells and EVs

July remains bullish as low interest rates fuel stock returns and gold gains. Russia can be viewed as a high dividend value opportunity if oil prices can remain elevated, and natural gas prices stabilize. A note from Merrill Lynch outlines the demand for hydrogen fuel cells that support natural gas (UNG) prices. China continues to Read more ➝

FIT COVID EU BREXIT

Friday Investment Talk: Brexit and EU during COVID, US Fed Actions, Inflation and the Summer Market

As Europe reopens, UK’s BOE announces the economic recovery will be ‘V-shaped’. Tourist travel seems to be picking up and markets (especially tech stocks) reacted well – as is usual in this seasonal bullish period. Q2 earnings reports are on the horizon, with stocks priced for perfection.

Fiscal stimilus is ending in the US as government transfer reciepts and other forms of unemployment support expire. As elections come to the forefront and COVID cases increase further aid is likely. The effects on inflation will be muted until employment levels come back and wages increase.

Seasonal ETF Trade Updates

July and the second half of the year have started off consistent with historical trends and patterns. The first trading day was mostly positive with S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording gains. However, July has historically been a month of transition with gains early and weakness in the second half. Meanwhile, three seasonal tredns start in July.

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Investment Talk

Friday Investment Talk: Russian Taxes, Market Valuation, MLPs and Credit Quality

AVC partners review Veronika’s participation in the Russian Portfolio Investment Conference where she discussed our Dividend Investment Research (DIR), and the new 13 to 15% income tax for Russian non-residents, down from 30%.   We reviewed the influence of recent central bank actions stocks and bond pricing. Credit quality is likely to become more of Read more ➝

Friday Investment Talk: ESG, Corporate Debt, and Fundamental Weakness

This Friday we follow up on our ESG webinar from Wednesday. ESG ETFs have witnessed explosive growth in terms of AUM and number of listings. ESG outperfomance vis-a-vis SPX and even the NDX is evident lately. Certain institutional investors have pushed this stretched trend recently. Many market indicators (both fundamental and technical) are very overbought. Read more ➝