Stocks are still bullish from a technical point of view – the Put/Call ratio is overbought, but not yet negative.
All time highs for percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages (95%).
Seasonality is generally weak in summer months, but summers are better in election years than other months in election years, and better than in summer months in non-election years. Research from Bank of America,
Cylicals could take the lead in the summer, as social media and tech companies under polical pressure.
Since broad domestic equity indices posted a bottom on March 23rd, they have not looked back. In fact, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have each rebounded with price returns in excess of 30%.
As a result of this upward movement a number of indicators have turned positive. What does this mean longer term for equity markets?
US and China tensions are beginning to boil over after China passed a plan to increase its security presence in Hong Kong.
The US State Department no longer considers Hong Kong to have significant autonomy and now threatens to revoke the special current special status it enjoys.
Which US listed companies derive large amounts of revenue from Hong Kong and China? We look at how changes affect these companies and the indexes they comprise.
We see overvalued prices in certain Tech companies, particluarly specific software companies. At the same time, PMIs may have hit near term lows. Can the classic cyclical sectors take the lead from here?
We have a just launched the first session of our new weekly “Friday Investment Talk” series. This week Alan, Mike, and I discuss the continuation of the bull market’s posture. Mike speaks of how client’s ‘fear of missing out’ leads to overly concentrated portfolios. Alan highlights how the recent Chinese sell off could be a buying opportunity, as other Asian markets look strong.
The month of June ranks near the bottom of all months for most of the US indexes. Expect volatility during the third week. After that it tends to only get worse.
This is the first of a new series of monthly research articles designed to help investors build high quality dividend growth stock portfolios for the long term.
AVC Advisory’s Dividend Investing
Research (DIR) uses momentum trading strategies to identify which dividend securities are trading in a positive manner relative to both the market and other income investements.
Initial Weekly Jobless Claims in the past eight weeks totalled 36.5 million. The good news is the trend is lower. The peak in Initial Claims was two weeks ago, and an immediate precipitous retreat has taken place. Is this an effective indication of the end of the bear market in stocks?
The US stock market in May used to perform buch better than it has in recent years. Still, there is generally a bullish bias in certain stock sectors.
May trading during US election years is generally weak. Caution is warranted, especially in the second half of the month.
So far, April has regained some of this years losses – in fact the NASDAQ is again positive for 2020.
What should investors do now that markets are entering the weakest period of the year? How bad could this year be, actually?